[SMM Daily Review] Ferrochrome Prices Remain Stable for Now, Chrome Ore Market Expected to Be Bearish

On June 3, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content). In Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. Ferrochrome prices remained stable during the day, but market sentiment was pessimistic, with producers expecting further declines. Recently, a high-carbon ferrochrome enterprise in Shaanxi resumed production of a 22,500 KVA submerged arc furnace, which is expected to impact monthly ferrochrome production by 4,000 mt. Coupled with frequent production resumptions recently, ferrochrome output has increased significantly. According to SMM data, high-carbon ferrochrome production further increased in May 2025, up 5.76% MoM. Meanwhile, stainless steel production in the downstream sector slightly decreased in May, and expected production cut plans in June are affecting ferrochrome purchases, leading to insufficient market confidence and an increase in low-priced supplies. In addition, spot prices of chrome ore have gradually declined, weakening the cost support for ferrochrome prices. The market is mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and ferrochrome prices are expected to be generally stable with slight fall in the short term.

On the raw material side, chrome ore prices remained stable during the day, with futures closing flat and spot prices at risk of further decline. Traders are bearish on the market outlook, and the chrome ore market is weakening. On June 3, 2025, spot quotes for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were 60-61 yuan/mtu; quotes for 48-50% Zimbabwean fines were 61-62 yuan/mtu; and quotes for 40-42% Turkish lump ore were 63-65 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day. The overseas market futures quote for 40-42% South African fines was $295/mt, unchanged from May 23, with 30,000 mt traded on June 2. Meanwhile, the overseas market spot quote was 58.2 yuan/mtu, showing a significant decline. Traders are facing increased inventory pressure and are more pessimistic about the market outlook. At the same time, ferrochrome producers are maintaining spot order restocking and purchases, with strong willingness to negotiate prices. Currently, the chrome ore market is characterized by a stalemate in back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream. Chrome ore prices are expected to be generally stable with slight fall in the short term.